Red Chip Poker: Late Position by Christian Soto & James Sweeney & Doug Hull

Author:Christian Soto & James Sweeney & Doug Hull [Soto, Christian]
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Published: 2014-02-03T16:00:00+00:00

This is a low paired board. If we analyze the texture using 99+/AKs in Flopzilla we see that his range is an overpair 90% of the time and misses AK 10% of the time. We can also figure out the breakeven percentage using the same formula as above:

BreakEven% = $RISK/($RISK+$REWARD) BreakEven% = $38/($38+$65) = 37%

We see our bet of $38 needs folds 37% of the time to breakeven. If we assume that he would never fold an overpair here and would always fold AK, then our bet is not outright profitable. We are behind and unlikely to catch up. Are we crazy? Why would we bet into this range?

Let us think ahead to the end of the hand. If the Villain calls the flop, he has a pair. He likely thinks we have an overpair too, possibly AK. We threebet pre-flop, so we very well could have the bigger pair. There is only one way for his pair to improve: catch a set to make a Full House. There are lots of very scary overcards that can come and weaken his hand. We are playing a game of Chicken right now. What is going to make us win? What will make us lose?

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